The 11th of November,
the Elcert treason and plot;
I know of no reason
why the Elcert treason
should ever be forgot!
‘Twas the intent,
said the Parliament,
of a market in balance and a stop.
The Energy Commission,
announced their decision,
but the Energy Agency said not!
Yesterday, the Swedish Parliament passed the bill to end the electricity certificates support scheme on December 31st 2021. Following the Energy Agreement (Energiöverenskommelsen) between five political parties in 2016 (Energikommissionen), the Swedish government clearly communicated both the importance of a stop-rule that would keep a market in balance and prevent price collapse and how time-critical it was for it to come into place. They instructed the Swedish Energy Agency to come back with a stop rule proposal and do it quickly, time was of importance to get the risk capital back and not to jeopardize the green build-out. The elcert part of the Energy Agreement created the trust in the market they needed. It gave investors the confidence to put SEK 90 billion in new Swedish wind power, creating the "Swedish wind-wonder", going from 20 TWh yearly production in 2019 to 43 TWh in 2023.
It took The Energy Agency 20 months before they published a proposal to close the system in December 2030. The proposed stop would result in an oversupply of hundreds of millions of elcerts. The market was shocked, and the elcert price collapsed from 179 SEK to 14 SEK. Another 14 months passed before the government's own Infrastructure office on March 18th published a new proposal. Also, the now passed bill will result in an oversupply in the size of 100-150 million elcerts and prices soon near or at zero. Today, the buyers pay 3 SEK for an elcertificate.
Investors in biomass CHPs (Swedish utilities, i.e. taxpayers), small scale hydro, and wind farms (mainly pension funds and other institutional money) have lost billions on the tardy handling and failed promises.
Sadly, it will soon be forgotten. The voters are happy—they got lower power prices and green energy. New investors are coming in, no longer in need of the support system due to the technological advances, paid for by the risk-taking of the early pioneers.
Maybe, one day, someone will make a public holiday of it celebrate with fireworks?
Bodecker Partners expertis inom den nordiska elmarknaden, såväl som elcertifikat och utsläppsrätter, hör till Sveriges främsta. Vi erbjuder oberoende rådgivning och hantering av marknadsprisrisker till investerare i nordisk förnybar elproduktion.